Dollar exchange rate after Easter: banker announced new limits.

After the Easter holidays, the state of the foreign exchange market in Ukraine will be stable, thanks to the National Bank's policy. However, it will also be influenced by seasonal and global factors. This was stated by Taras Lesovyi, director of financial markets and investment activities at Globus Bank. According to him, the NBU will continue to play a key role in a regime of 'managed flexibility', which will avoid sharp currency fluctuations. The monetary policy of the regulator aimed at curbing inflation and supporting the hryvnia will remain the main stabilizing factor. The banker also drew attention to seasonal factors affecting the currency market. The supply of currency in the cash market increased by 10-15% before the holidays due to the sale of savings for holiday expenses. After the holidays, economic activity in Ukraine will increase, especially due to the start of the sowing campaign. Forecasts for the week of April 21-27 show that the exchange rates between interbank and cash markets will be nearly the same, with a balance between supply and demand. It is expected that the interbank rate will fluctuate within 41.1-41.6 UAH/USD, while in the cash market it will be 40.8-41.3 UAH/USD. At the same Time, fluctuations will not exceed 1-1.5% from the initial level of the week. The situation in the foreign exchange market will be approximately the same as last week. The euro exchange rate will continue to be under pressure due to global factors, particularly due to the change in the EUR/USD ratio. However, experts suggest that fluctuations in the euro will be temporary. According to official NBU data, the dollar exchange rate was 41.22 UAH (an increase of 0.5% for the week), while the euro was 43.87 UAH (a decrease of 0.3%). In the cash market, the dollar rate fluctuated between 41.0-41.5 UAH, while the euro ranged from 43.5-44.0 UAH. ICU analyst Vitaliy Vavyryshchuk noted that the sowing campaign may increase demand for currency due to imports of machinery and fuel. However, the National Bank of Ukraine has sufficient reserves to ensure stability. Also, global instability, particularly the introduction of new US tariffs or negotiations with China, may create additional pressure on the euro. It should also be noted that the record euro exchange rate affects Ukrainians and their savings in dollars.